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Black Sea gas puts Caspian on Ice?

What would Black Sea gas really mean for the region?

With commercialization possible by 2017, Black Sea gas could beat new volumes from Shah Deniz into Europe by up to 5 years. Strategy in the Caspian would be affected – and long running investments by Russian and Western European players would be impacted.

Small-Scale LNG?

What is certain is that flexible LNG will be under intense study and also that tanker traffic will be altered. With BOTAS and EgeGaz sporting terminals in Turkey, and Ukraine showing serious interest in building its own, parallel developments with Small-Scale LNG could find favor in the maritime, energy production, and refining/petrochemical sectors. The necessary inputs and possible out comes will be explored at Fleming Europe’s Small Scale LNG Forum, October 23rd – 24th in Istanbul.

The event will feature a set of diverse perspectives including Gasnor’s Head of Fuel Markets |Aksel Skjervheim, Gasunie’s Wim Groenendijk | Vice President International and Public Affairs, Head of Representation in Russia + Vice-President and Chairman of small-scale LNG Working Group
Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), along with other small-scale first movers in Northern Europe. Having driven the majority of innovations in Small-Scale LNG plus the regulatory, environmental, supply chain, and technological challenges of sharing the benefits of clean LNG beyond Europe’s Gas Transport Grids.

Presentations will demonstrate how various sectors address legislative and regulatory pressure on their business models. Other regions and industries are taking note, hence participation from BOTAS’ Vedat Güven | International Projects Directorate, Hiroshi Kondo | Tokyo Gas and Peter van der Gaag, Managing Director | Anglo Dutch Bio-LNG.

From the maritime sector, one of the main innovators in LNG, and the target of the IMO and European Commission’s strict emissions regulations, speakers Marco Andreola | Rolls-Royce Italia S.r.l and Alexander Harsema-Mensonides | Marine Service GmbH, will demonstrate the pace of innovation and business case in shipping and provide business side context. Helmut Morsi | Deputy Head of Unit -Trans-European Network- Head of Sector "Innovation & TENtec" at the European Commission and Okan Yardimci | Energy Expert, (Turkish) Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) will provide the European Commission and Turkish/Black Sea perspectives on regulation required to facilitate wider application of LNG’s benefits.

Even without mandated Emission Control Areas (ECAs) like those driving innovation and investment on the Baltic & North Sea, the Black Sea region can benefit in two ways. First, by diversifying Gas supplies and creating large domestically produced volumes, the wider region will benefit from greatly increased negotiating power for both long term and spot contracts. Furthermore, injected volumes could be sold on to western hubs, facilitating beneficial price signals and security of supply.

Second, pursuing Small Scale LNG would provide a cost competitive mechanism enabling the region’s logistics and transport sector to blossom, delivering on needed Gas to Power networks, markedly cleaner Marine Fuels, enabling price friendly Road Transport fuels and a diversity of other applications. Benefits would also widely impact gas prices across SEE, and help settle concerns about wider transmission agreements in Europe.

What is missing?

Obviously this article has left out politics, and for good reason. With billions of Euro hanging in the balance, and geo-political and economic factors at stake, the final composition of player in this game will be crucial. Can Northwestern Europe drive results with Small-Scale LNG? Will their presence give confidence to Ukraine, and projects in Balkans to move forward? Will Turkey play its card and help bring Black Sea gas to global market? Can GAZPROM take a position here?

Get answers, predictions, and make contact with key players at Small Scale LNG Forum, October 23rd and 24 th in Istanbul.

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